Estimated prevalence of opioid use disorder in Massachusetts, 2011–2015: a capture–recapture analysis

abstract

Objectives. To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015.

Methods. We performed a multisample stratified capture–recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence.

Results. The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11–25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015.

Conclusions. In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.