Complex Predictive Model

Presentation at 2022 NESS

abstract Simulation models of opioid use disorder (OUD) aim at evaluating the impact of different treatment strategies on population-level outcomes. Researching Effective Strategies to Prevent Opioid Death (RESPOND) is a dynamic population state-transition model that simulates Massachusetts (MA) OUD population synthesizing data from the MA Public Health Data Warehouse, published survey studies, and randomized trials.

abstract Importance The United States is experiencing a crisis of opioid overdose. In response, the US Department of Health and Human Services has defined a goal to reduce overdose mortality by 40% by 2022.

abstract Purpose: A metamodel is a simplified approximation of the relationships between inputs and outputs in a simulation model. A challenge in metamodeling for policy analysis is that there are often multiple correlated outputs of interest: for example, costs and effects of different policy choices.